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What Is the Deal Really Worth to PayPal & Dwolla?

canstockphoto0423910On the surface, the deal making PayPal and Dwolla payment options on, the US Treasury’s online payments hub, looks massive — trillions-of-dollars massive.

After all, the US Treasury reports that the federal government processed $3.73 trillion (with a T) in fiscal year 2014, 98% of which was settled electronically. processed about $110 billion of that in 100 million transactions.

But looks, or really numbers, can be deceiving, or at least my math implies as such.

Of course, PayPal and Dwolla are not going to be responsible for all 100 million or so transactions in FY 2015, nevermind the fact that 19 government departments need to adopt the new payment options, and that will take time. currently offers two payment options: pay via bank account using ACH or via credit or debit card. According to Dwolla officials, Dwolla and PayPal will be added as payment options to

It is hard to estimate what percentage of payments will use the Dwolla-or-PayPal options once they are fully adopted. According to some evidence, consumers opt for PayPal over other online payment options one in six times. This data point is wholly unscientific, and even if true, cannot be blindly applied to However, for s**** and giggles, let’s say that ratio is about right and around 17% of transactions will equally run through either Dwolla or PayPal. (Yes, I know it won’t be absolutely equal, but stay with me here.)

In sum, Dwolla and PayPal could each process 8.35 million transactions with a face value of $9.2 billion. Now, here is where things diverge. Dwolla states that it charges $0.25 per transaction, assuming the transaction is for more than $10, otherwise Dwolla charges nothing. PayPal, meanwhile, charges $0.30 per transaction and 2.9% of the face value of the transaction. Therefore, according to my math, Dwolla stands to generate $2.1 million of revenue from, while PayPal could generate … wait for it … $268.9 million.

Screenshot (1) site 022015

Dwolla and PayPal’s placements on the payments page.

I have reached out to Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the unit within the US Treasury that manages, for confirmation that PayPal and Dwolla are free to charge their own settlement rates. I am still waiting for confirmation, but the preliminary conversation I had with the bureau suggested that indeed PayPal and Dwolla have pricing freedom.

Admittedly, this is all back-of-the-envelope analysis, so take it with a hefty grain of salt. But there is a takeaway here — which is that the deal will likely have vastly different financial implications for Dwolla and PayPal.

Learn more about alternative payments at Bank Innovation 2015, March 2-3 in Seattle. Click here to get invited.

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JJ is the Executive Editor & Publisher of Bank Innovation and CEO of Royal Media, its parent company. He has been writing about banking since 1993.

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  1. […] Now it is free for any amount. While some may question the viability of this business model (as we have), Milne pointed out that payment networks are already in a “race to the bottom”: […]